Today’s Severe Weather Outlook

Severe Weather Potential for later today could be interesting according to the SPC, Take a look at the maps below

Slight Risk for northeast, central and southern Minnesota and western and northwest Wisconsin, Including the Cities in Minnesota of International Falls, Duluth, Brainerd, Saint Cloud, Willmar, The Twin Cities Metro, Marshall, Fairmont, Mankato, Albert Lea, Rochester and Winona, Cities in Wisconsin include Eau Claire, Barron, Amery, Ladysmith, Hayward, Ashland and Hayward

10%(green) Tornado Potential includes the Twin Cities Metro, Elk River, Cambridge, Mora, Milaca, Sandstone, Buffalo, Glencoe, Northfield, Red Wing in Minnesota and Ellsworth, Baldwin, Amery, Balsam Lake, Frederic, Siren in Wisconsin, 5%(blue) surrounding this area with 2%(light blue) surrounding that area

Significant & 30% hail area includes south central, east central Minnesota and a small portion of western Wisconsin

30% Wind potential covering pretty much the same areas mentioned in the hail map above

Information from the SPC about this potential severe event below, Keep a eye on the sky and keep up to date via your local media, internet or weather radio for the latest updates.

Jon

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK   
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 
1251 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012 
 
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z 
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS 
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI 
VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS... 
  
..SYNOPSIS 
 
A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...WITH A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT 
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...IS IN THE PROCESS OF PROGRESSING 
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S...AND 
APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE NOSING EAST NORTHEASTWARD DURING THIS 
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE LEAD IMPULSE...INCLUDING A DEVELOPING LOWER 
AND MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE...APPEARS LIKELY TO LIFT NORTH OF THE 
CENTRAL INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA...WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW 
MIGRATING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO 
THE NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY.  GUIDANCE 
IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A SECONDARY LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS 
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.  BUT A DEVELOPING FRONTAL 
ZONE...PERHAPS REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW FROM MORNING  
CONVECTION...STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL 
MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING 
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 
 
TO THE SOUTH...WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA 
COAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH PERHAPS AT LEAST ONE 
IMPULSE PROGRESSING OUT OF THIS REGIME INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 
 
MEANWHILE...AS WEAK UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE  
ATLANTIC COAST...SURFACE RIDGING...NOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE 
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION...IS EXPECTED TO NOSE SOUTHWARD 
TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT 
AIR SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE GULF STATES...BUT 
GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SUBSTANTIVE NORTHWARD RETURN 
FLOW OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE PLAINS COLD FRONT...AND PERHAPS A 
NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN 
APPALACHIANS. 
  
..UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 
 
CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA 
AND ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LIKELY WILL PERSIST BEYOND 
12Z...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AS IT SPREADS ACROSS 
NORTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.  IN ITS WAKE...ALONG/SOUTH OF 
A RETREATING OUTFLOW/NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT...CONSIDERABLE 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED IN A PRE-COLD FRONTAL CORRIDOR 
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL IOWA INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.  
COINCIDING WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODELS INDICATE 
MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1500-2000+ J/KG...AS DEEP 
LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE UPPER IMPULSE.  
ALTHOUGH STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY PASS MOSTLY 
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE 
TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  30-50+ KT 
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS...VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WILL 
PROVIDE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION... 
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS WELL AS 
A FEW TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS 
PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST 
WISCONSIN...BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. 
  

 
..KERR/GARNER.. 06/14/2012